Happy Rainy January!

I hope you are all safe and warm; we have had a lot of rain! Although we needed it, this was much more than what we expected. As always, I am here for you, and what better way to spend these rainy days than connecting with me to get your real estate goals going?

I look forward to connecting with you soon to help with any of your real estate needs. Give me a call 24/7 at (510) 406-4836

My Best Always,

Joujou

Client Testimonial

Joujou and her team are by far the absolute best team we have ever worked with. Joujou has an outstanding network of service providers who are also top-notch like she and her team. This was the smoothest house sale we have gone through. Joujou’s attention to detail, follow-through and focus on her clients’ satisfaction are second to no one. She is very well-versed in the market and her and the team’s communication is stellar! Can’t say enough good things about Joujou, she and the team are the best folks we have ever worked with. Thank you Joujou and team!

~San Ramon Seller 2022

DID YOU KNOW?

Is it a good time to buy?

In December, 21% of the 1,000 respondents Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index surveyed said they believe “it’s a good time to buy.” In November, only 16% said that it was a good time to buy a home. While still weak, that’s a 31% improvement in 1 month as markets adjust to new realities! Adapting takes a bit of time.

Housing inventory shortages

See this link of COMPASS Manhattan super-star agent Brian Lewis speaking on FOX BUSINESS about the biggest challenge most markets are facing right now: inventory shortages. This is a great interview worth watching! “There is no national market!” Thanks – as always – for making all of us at COMPASS look and sound so good!

Meaning of Transitory

The word ‘transitory’ was used widely in 2021 about inflation. The FED said the big surge would come and go quickly. They were wrong about that, but at the end of the day, we may see that much of what happened in the past 2-3 years was indeed just that, transitory.

Home sale prices surged and now seem to be declining, most at threat in areas where they surged the most. Some price declines will be muted if their surges were fueled by prior years’ undervaluation and new, sustained demand.
Home rent prices surged and now seem to be stabilizing and in decline in areas. Many massive rental pricing surges were based on figures that compared themselves to figures achieved in 2020 when there was significant Covid-related discounting.
Many commodity prices surged and have now come back to earth. The one that probably impacts housing most is lumber which surged to over $1,600 in May 2021 and is now trading under $370. Natural gas was trading at $9.329 in August 2022, and today it’s at $3.71.
The US currency soared to 98 cents to the Euro in October, now just a few weeks later it has eased to 1.066. Bitcoin was trading at $65,000 in November 2021, and today it's $16,935.
Many companies faced with extreme demand surges in 2020-2022 ramped up staffing, production, and inventories assuming those levels of demand would continue: now we are seeing massive, deeply discounted retail sales and notable layoffs from companies that experienced massive growth. Amazon increased its labor force by 24% between 2020 and 2021.

So yes, I believe what happened in 2020-2022 was indeed transitory on many – not all – levels. So why can’t we see it? Mostly because if you look up any graph – or any real estate report – it mostly has a very limited window. Sometimes a day, a month. If you’re lucky, a quarter or a year. Beyond that? Hah! You have to go searching. Maybe this serves simply as another reminder that the term ‘short-term’ should not mean hours or weeks, but maybe rather several months. In real estate, months are semi-meaningless. Multiple years matter so much more. Massive ‘events’ and ‘shocks’ can trigger massive overreaction and extremes.

If we are to evaluate our businesses, the economy, our lives, etc more meaningfully, we may all be better served by adopting a longer, wider vantage point.

Inflation was over 11% in 1974, and remained above 6% for almost 10 years between 1973 and 1982, dipping a wee bit below 6% in 1976.
Total CPI has increased from 1970 to today by over 600%, which means $1 in 1970 would be around $7.68 today, OR a $500k home today would have been around $65k in 1970.

- Leonard Steinberg

Macroeconomic Updates

Diablo Valley Real Estate January 2023 Report

Explore Curated Magazine

_{Our Compass Curated Featured Listing – 2020 Victorine Rd., Livermore, CA}

Fun Things to Do on a Rainy Day With Your Kids

Click the above link for great fun when It’s raining, it’s pouring, and your children are getting antsy. The neighborhood park and local zoo are off-limits, and you need to come up with some ideas for indoor activities to keep your kids occupied.